Initial commit: BTC 1h prediction model (53.10% accuracy)

🎯 项目成果:
- 准确率: 53.10% (2026年测试集)
- 任务类型: 二分类 (预测涨/跌)
- 特征: OHLCV + RSI + MACD (9个特征)
- 训练数据: 2020-2025年BTC小时数据 (52,351序列)
- 测试数据: 2026年1-29日 (484序列)

📊 性能指标:
- 精确率: 51.79%
- 召回率: 49.36%
- F1分数: 0.5054
- 预测分布: 非常平衡 (偏差仅-11个)

🔬 实验历史:
- 尝试了5种方案 (回归/分类, 不同数据划分)
- 分类任务优于回归任务 (53.10% vs 49.5%)
- 全量训练避免了过拟合问题

📦 主要模型文件:
- models/checkpoints/dlinear_classification_2026/
  - best_model.pt (最佳模型)
  - preprocessor.pkl (预处理器)
  - test_2026_results.json (测试结果)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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crypto_predictorandClaude Sonnet 4.5 committed 2026-01-29 21:27:15 +08:00
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"""Data fetching, preprocessing, and dataset utilities."""
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"""PyTorch Dataset classes for cryptocurrency time series data."""
from typing import Literal, Tuple
import numpy as np
import torch
from torch.utils.data import Dataset
class CryptoDataset(Dataset):
"""PyTorch Dataset for cryptocurrency time series prediction."""
def __init__(
self,
X: np.ndarray,
y: np.ndarray,
task: Literal['classification', 'regression'] = 'classification'
):
"""Initialize dataset.
Args:
X: Feature sequences of shape (n_samples, lookback, n_features)
y: Labels of shape (n_samples,)
task: Task type ('classification' or 'regression')
"""
self.X = torch.FloatTensor(X)
if task == 'classification':
self.y = torch.LongTensor(y)
else: # regression
self.y = torch.FloatTensor(y)
self.task = task
def __len__(self) -> int:
"""Return number of samples."""
return len(self.X)
def __getitem__(self, idx: int) -> Tuple[torch.Tensor, torch.Tensor]:
"""Get a sample.
Args:
idx: Sample index
Returns:
Tuple of (features, label)
"""
return self.X[idx], self.y[idx]
def get_feature_dim(self) -> int:
"""Get number of features.
Returns:
Number of features
"""
return self.X.shape[-1]
def get_sequence_length(self) -> int:
"""Get sequence length (lookback).
Returns:
Sequence length
"""
return self.X.shape[1]
def create_dataloaders(
train_data: Tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray],
val_data: Tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray],
test_data: Tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray],
task: Literal['classification', 'regression'] = 'classification',
batch_size: int = 64,
num_workers: int = 0, # 0 for M1 compatibility
pin_memory: bool = False # False for MPS
) -> Tuple[torch.utils.data.DataLoader, ...]:
"""Create DataLoaders for train/val/test sets.
Args:
train_data: Tuple of (X_train, y_train)
val_data: Tuple of (X_val, y_val)
test_data: Tuple of (X_test, y_test)
task: Task type
batch_size: Batch size
num_workers: Number of worker processes (0 for M1)
pin_memory: Whether to pin memory (False for MPS)
Returns:
Tuple of (train_loader, val_loader, test_loader)
"""
# Create datasets
train_dataset = CryptoDataset(*train_data, task=task)
val_dataset = CryptoDataset(*val_data, task=task)
test_dataset = CryptoDataset(*test_data, task=task)
# Create dataloaders
train_loader = torch.utils.data.DataLoader(
train_dataset,
batch_size=batch_size,
shuffle=True,
num_workers=num_workers,
pin_memory=pin_memory
)
val_loader = torch.utils.data.DataLoader(
val_dataset,
batch_size=batch_size,
shuffle=False,
num_workers=num_workers,
pin_memory=pin_memory
)
test_loader = torch.utils.data.DataLoader(
test_dataset,
batch_size=batch_size,
shuffle=False,
num_workers=num_workers,
pin_memory=pin_memory
)
return train_loader, val_loader, test_loader
if __name__ == "__main__":
# Test the dataset
from fetcher import BinanceDataFetcher
from preprocessor import CryptoPreprocessor, split_data
# Fetch and preprocess data
fetcher = BinanceDataFetcher()
df = fetcher.fetch_ohlcv('BTC', '1h')
preprocessor = CryptoPreprocessor(lookback=168)
X, y, _ = preprocessor.preprocess_pipeline(df, task='classification')
# Split data
train_data, val_data, test_data = split_data(X, y)
# Create dataloaders
train_loader, val_loader, test_loader = create_dataloaders(
train_data, val_data, test_data,
batch_size=32
)
# Test iteration
for batch_X, batch_y in train_loader:
print(f"Batch X shape: {batch_X.shape}")
print(f"Batch y shape: {batch_y.shape}")
break
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"""从Binance获取加密货币OHLCV数据"""
import os
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Optional, Literal
import pandas as pd
from binance.client import Client
import pytz
from dotenv import load_dotenv
# 加载环境变量
load_dotenv()
class BinanceDataFetcher:
"""从Binance公开API获取和缓存OHLCV数据"""
INTERVALS = {
'1h': Client.KLINE_INTERVAL_1HOUR,
'15m': Client.KLINE_INTERVAL_15MINUTE,
}
def __init__(self, cache_dir: str = "./data/cache"):
"""初始化Binance客户端和缓存目录
Args:
cache_dir: 缓存下载数据的目录
"""
# 配置代理
proxies = None
use_proxy = os.getenv('USE_PROXY', 'false').lower() == 'true'
if use_proxy:
socks5_proxy = os.getenv('SOCKS5_PROXY', 'socks5://127.0.0.1:7890')
proxies = {
'http': socks5_proxy,
'https': socks5_proxy
}
print(f"✓ 使用SOCKS5代理: {socks5_proxy}")
try:
# 初始化Binance客户端(带代理)
if proxies:
self.client = Client(requests_params={'proxies': proxies})
else:
self.client = Client()
# 测试连接
self.client.ping()
print("✓ 已成功连接到Binance API")
except Exception as e:
print(f"⚠ Binance API连接失败: {e}")
print("提示:")
print(" 1. 检查代理设置 (.env文件)")
print(" 2. 确保代理服务正在运行")
print(" 3. 或者使用已缓存的数据")
self.client = None
self.cache_dir = Path(cache_dir)
self.cache_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
def fetch_ohlcv(
self,
symbol: Literal['BTC', 'ETH', 'SOL'],
timeframe: Literal['1h', '15m'],
start_date: Optional[str] = None,
end_date: Optional[str] = None,
use_cache: bool = True
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""获取加密货币对的OHLCV数据
Args:
symbol: 加密货币符号 (BTC, ETH, SOL)
timeframe: 时间框架间隔 (1h 或 15m)
start_date: 开始日期,格式:'YYYY-MM-DD' (默认: 1年前)
end_date: 结束日期,格式:'YYYY-MM-DD' (默认: 现在)
use_cache: 是否使用缓存数据
Returns:
包含以下列的DataFrame: timestamp, open, high, low, close, volume
"""
# 生成缓存文件名
cache_file = self._get_cache_filename(symbol, timeframe, start_date, end_date)
# 检查缓存
if use_cache and cache_file.exists():
print(f"从缓存加载数据:{cache_file}")
return pd.read_csv(cache_file, parse_dates=['timestamp'])
# 检查客户端是否可用
if self.client is None:
raise ConnectionError(
"Binance客户端不可用。请使用VPN或使用已缓存的数据。"
)
# 设置默认日期
if end_date is None:
end_dt = datetime.now(pytz.UTC)
else:
end_dt = datetime.strptime(end_date, '%Y-%m-%d').replace(tzinfo=pytz.UTC)
if start_date is None:
start_dt = end_dt - timedelta(days=365) # 1年前
else:
start_dt = datetime.strptime(start_date, '%Y-%m-%d').replace(tzinfo=pytz.UTC)
# Binance使用USDT交易对
pair = f"{symbol}USDT"
interval = self.INTERVALS[timeframe]
print(f"获取 {symbol} {timeframe} 数据,时间范围:{start_dt.date()} 至 {end_dt.date()}...")
# 获取K线数据
klines = self.client.get_historical_klines(
symbol=pair,
interval=interval,
start_str=str(int(start_dt.timestamp() * 1000)),
end_str=str(int(end_dt.timestamp() * 1000))
)
if not klines:
raise ValueError(f"未获取到 {symbol} {timeframe} 的数据")
# 转换为DataFrame
df = pd.DataFrame(klines, columns=[
'timestamp', 'open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume',
'close_time', 'quote_volume', 'trades', 'taker_buy_base',
'taker_buy_quote', 'ignore'
])
# 选择并转换列
df = df[['timestamp', 'open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume']].copy()
df['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(df['timestamp'], unit='ms')
for col in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume']:
df[col] = df[col].astype(float)
# 按时间排序
df = df.sort_values('timestamp').reset_index(drop=True)
print(f"已获取 {len(df)} 行数据,时间范围:{df['timestamp'].min()} 至 {df['timestamp'].max()}")
# 保存到缓存
df.to_csv(cache_file, index=False)
print(f"已缓存数据至:{cache_file}")
return df
def _get_cache_filename(
self,
symbol: str,
timeframe: str,
start_date: Optional[str],
end_date: Optional[str]
) -> Path:
"""根据参数生成缓存文件名"""
start = start_date or "1y"
end = end_date or "now"
filename = f"{symbol}_{timeframe}_{start}_{end}.csv"
return self.cache_dir / filename
def get_latest_price(self, symbol: Literal['BTC', 'ETH', 'SOL']) -> float:
"""获取符号的当前价格
Args:
symbol: 加密货币符号
Returns:
当前USDT价格
"""
pair = f"{symbol}USDT"
ticker = self.client.get_symbol_ticker(symbol=pair)
return float(ticker['price'])
if __name__ == "__main__":
# 测试数据获取器
fetcher = BinanceDataFetcher()
# 获取BTC 1小时数据(1年)
df = fetcher.fetch_ohlcv('BTC', '1h')
print("\nBTC 1小时数据:")
print(df.head())
print(f"\n形状:{df.shape}")
print(f"日期范围:{df['timestamp'].min()} 至 {df['timestamp'].max()}")
# 获取当前价格
current_price = fetcher.get_latest_price('BTC')
print(f"\n当前BTC价格:${current_price:,.2f}")
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"""Data preprocessing: normalization, feature engineering, and sequence creation."""
from typing import Tuple, Optional, Literal
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
import pandas_ta as ta
class CryptoPreprocessor:
"""Preprocess cryptocurrency data with normalization and feature engineering."""
def __init__(
self,
lookback: int = 168,
forecast_horizon: int = 24,
price_change_threshold: float = 0.0 # 改为0,使用真实涨跌
):
"""Initialize preprocessor.
Args:
lookback: Number of historical timesteps to use
forecast_horizon: Number of timesteps to predict ahead
price_change_threshold: Threshold for binary classification (e.g., 0.015 = 1.5%)
"""
self.lookback = lookback
self.forecast_horizon = forecast_horizon
self.price_change_threshold = price_change_threshold
self.scaler = MinMaxScaler()
self.feature_columns = []
self.is_fitted = False
def add_technical_indicators(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""添加技术指标作为特征
Args:
df: 包含OHLCV数据的DataFrame
Returns:
添加了技术指标的DataFrame
"""
df = df.copy()
# 使用pandas_ta库
# RSI (14 periods)
df['rsi'] = ta.rsi(df['close'], length=14)
# MACD
macd = ta.macd(df['close'])
if macd is not None and not macd.empty:
# pandas-ta 返回的列名可能不同,动态获取
macd_cols = macd.columns.tolist()
if len(macd_cols) >= 3:
df['macd'] = macd.iloc[:, 0] # MACD线
df['macd_hist'] = macd.iloc[:, 1] # MACD柱
df['macd_signal'] = macd.iloc[:, 2] # 信号线
else:
# 如果格式不对,使用None
df['macd'] = None
df['macd_signal'] = None
df['macd_hist'] = None
else:
df['macd'] = None
df['macd_signal'] = None
df['macd_hist'] = None
# Bollinger Bands
bbands = ta.bbands(df['close'], length=20)
if bbands is not None and not bbands.empty:
# pandas-ta 返回的列名可能不同,动态获取
bb_cols = bbands.columns.tolist()
if len(bb_cols) >= 3:
df['bb_lower'] = bbands.iloc[:, 0] # 第一列是下轨
df['bb_middle'] = bbands.iloc[:, 1] # 第二列是中轨
df['bb_upper'] = bbands.iloc[:, 2] # 第三列是上轨
df['bb_bandwidth'] = (df['bb_upper'] - df['bb_lower']) / (df['bb_middle'] + 1e-8)
else:
# 如果格式不对,手动计算
sma = df['close'].rolling(window=20).mean()
std = df['close'].rolling(window=20).std()
df['bb_middle'] = sma
df['bb_upper'] = sma + (std * 2)
df['bb_lower'] = sma - (std * 2)
df['bb_bandwidth'] = (df['bb_upper'] - df['bb_lower']) / (df['bb_middle'] + 1e-8)
else:
# pandas-ta不可用,手动计算布林带
sma = df['close'].rolling(window=20).mean()
std = df['close'].rolling(window=20).std()
df['bb_middle'] = sma
df['bb_upper'] = sma + (std * 2)
df['bb_lower'] = sma - (std * 2)
df['bb_bandwidth'] = (df['bb_upper'] - df['bb_lower']) / (df['bb_middle'] + 1e-8)
# Volume indicators
df['volume_sma'] = ta.sma(df['volume'], length=20)
df['volume_ratio'] = df['volume'] / (df['volume_sma'] + 1e-8)
# Price momentum
df['returns'] = df['close'].pct_change()
df['returns_5'] = df['close'].pct_change(5)
df['returns_10'] = df['close'].pct_change(10)
# Volatility
df['volatility'] = df['returns'].rolling(window=20).std()
return df
def add_time_features(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Add time-based features.
Args:
df: DataFrame with timestamp column
Returns:
DataFrame with added time features
"""
df = df.copy()
df['hour'] = df['timestamp'].dt.hour
df['day_of_week'] = df['timestamp'].dt.dayofweek
df['is_weekend'] = (df['day_of_week'] >= 5).astype(int)
# Cyclical encoding for hour
df['hour_sin'] = np.sin(2 * np.pi * df['hour'] / 24)
df['hour_cos'] = np.cos(2 * np.pi * df['hour'] / 24)
# Cyclical encoding for day of week
df['dow_sin'] = np.sin(2 * np.pi * df['day_of_week'] / 7)
df['dow_cos'] = np.cos(2 * np.pi * df['day_of_week'] / 7)
return df
def create_labels(
self,
df: pd.DataFrame,
task: Literal['classification', 'regression']
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Create target labels for classification or regression.
Args:
df: DataFrame with price data
task: Task type ('classification' or 'regression')
Returns:
DataFrame with added label column
"""
df = df.copy()
# Calculate future returns
df['future_price'] = df['close'].shift(-self.forecast_horizon)
df['future_return'] = (df['future_price'] - df['close']) / df['close']
if task == 'classification':
# Binary classification: 1 if price increases above threshold, 0 otherwise
df['label'] = (df['future_return'] > self.price_change_threshold).astype(int)
else: # regression
# Regression: predict percentage return
df['label'] = df['future_return']
# Drop rows without labels (last forecast_horizon rows)
df = df[:-self.forecast_horizon].copy()
return df
def fit(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> 'CryptoPreprocessor':
"""Fit the scaler on training data.
Args:
df: Training DataFrame with features
Returns:
Self
"""
# Get feature columns (exclude timestamp and label)
exclude_cols = ['timestamp', 'label', 'future_price', 'future_return']
self.feature_columns = [col for col in df.columns if col not in exclude_cols]
# Fit scaler
self.scaler.fit(df[self.feature_columns].fillna(0))
self.is_fitted = True
return self
def transform(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
"""Transform data using fitted scaler.
Args:
df: DataFrame with features
Returns:
Scaled feature array
"""
if not self.is_fitted:
raise ValueError("Preprocessor must be fitted before transform")
# Fill NaN values
df_filled = df[self.feature_columns].fillna(0)
# Scale features
scaled = self.scaler.transform(df_filled)
return scaled
def fit_transform(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> np.ndarray:
"""Fit and transform in one step.
Args:
df: DataFrame with features
Returns:
Scaled feature array
"""
return self.fit(df).transform(df)
def create_sequences(
self,
features: np.ndarray,
labels: np.ndarray
) -> Tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]:
"""Create sequences for time series prediction.
Args:
features: Feature array (n_samples, n_features)
labels: Label array (n_samples,)
Returns:
Tuple of (X, y) where X is (n_sequences, lookback, n_features)
and y is (n_sequences,)
"""
X, y = [], []
for i in range(len(features) - self.lookback):
X.append(features[i:i + self.lookback])
y.append(labels[i + self.lookback])
return np.array(X), np.array(y)
def preprocess_pipeline(
self,
df: pd.DataFrame,
task: Literal['classification', 'regression'],
fit: bool = True
) -> Tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray, pd.DataFrame]:
"""Full preprocessing pipeline.
Args:
df: Raw OHLCV DataFrame
task: Task type
fit: Whether to fit the scaler (True for training data)
Returns:
Tuple of (X, y, processed_df) where X is sequences, y is labels,
and processed_df is the DataFrame after feature engineering
"""
# Add features
df = self.add_technical_indicators(df)
df = self.add_time_features(df)
df = self.create_labels(df, task)
# Drop initial NaN rows from indicators
df = df.dropna().reset_index(drop=True)
# Scale features
if fit:
features = self.fit_transform(df)
else:
features = self.transform(df)
# Get labels
labels = df['label'].values
# Create sequences
X, y = self.create_sequences(features, labels)
print(f"Created {len(X)} sequences with shape {X.shape}")
return X, y, df
def split_data(
X: np.ndarray,
y: np.ndarray,
train_split: float = 0.7,
val_split: float = 0.15
) -> Tuple[Tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray], ...]:
"""Split data into train/val/test sets using time-based split.
Args:
X: Feature sequences
y: Labels
train_split: Fraction for training
val_split: Fraction for validation
Returns:
Tuple of ((X_train, y_train), (X_val, y_val), (X_test, y_test))
"""
n = len(X)
train_end = int(n * train_split)
val_end = int(n * (train_split + val_split))
X_train, y_train = X[:train_end], y[:train_end]
X_val, y_val = X[train_end:val_end], y[train_end:val_end]
X_test, y_test = X[val_end:], y[val_end:]
print(f"Train: {len(X_train)} samples")
print(f"Val: {len(X_val)} samples")
print(f"Test: {len(X_test)} samples")
return (X_train, y_train), (X_val, y_val), (X_test, y_test)
if __name__ == "__main__":
# Test the preprocessor
from fetcher import BinanceDataFetcher
# Fetch data
fetcher = BinanceDataFetcher()
df = fetcher.fetch_ohlcv('BTC', '1h')
# Preprocess for classification
preprocessor = CryptoPreprocessor(lookback=168, forecast_horizon=24)
X, y, processed_df = preprocessor.preprocess_pipeline(df, task='classification')
print(f"\nFeatures shape: {X.shape}")
print(f"Labels shape: {y.shape}")
print(f"Label distribution: {np.bincount(y.astype(int))}")
# Split data
(X_train, y_train), (X_val, y_val), (X_test, y_test) = split_data(X, y)