fix: update initial trade logic

- Enable immediate trading attempt on startup
- Dynamic timeout calculation (remaining minutes - 10) for initial trade
- Added duplicate check for initial prediction saving to prevent DB errors

trader/auto_trade_polymarket.py

@@ -719,146 +719,22 @@ class PolymarketBTCTrader:
     
     def _show_initial_prediction(self):
         """
-        启动时显示当前预测（不下单）
+        启动时显示当前预测并尝试执行交易 (不记录Monitor状态)
         """
-        logger.info("\n📊 当前预测状态:")
+        logger.info("\n📊 启动时初始预测检查:")
         
-        end_date = (datetime.now() + timedelta(days=1)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
+        # 计算剩余分钟数
-        start_date = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=30)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
-        
-        df = self.fetcher.fetch_ohlcv(
-            symbol='BTC',
-            timeframe='1h',
-            start_date=start_date,
-            end_date=end_date,
-            use_cache=False
-        )
-        
-        # 显示K线信息
-        prev_time = df['timestamp'].iloc[-2]
-        prev_close = df['close'].iloc[-2]
-        current_time = df['timestamp'].iloc[-1]
-        current_close = df['close'].iloc[-1]
-        
-        logger.info(f"  上一K线: {prev_time} 收盘价: ${prev_close:,.2f}")
-        logger.info(f"  当前K线: {current_time} 收盘价: ${current_close:,.2f}")
-        
-        # 进行多模型预测
-        df_for_prediction = df.iloc[:-1]
-        all_preds = self.inference_manager.predict_all(df_for_prediction)
-        
-        # DLinear
-        if 'dlinear' in all_preds:
-            dl = all_preds['dlinear']
-            logger.info(f"  🤖 DLinear: {'📈 UP' if dl['prediction']==1 else '📉 DOWN'} ({dl['probability']:.1%})")
-
-        # N-BEATS
-        if 'nbeats' in all_preds:
-            nb = all_preds['nbeats']
-            logger.info(f"  🤖 N-BEATS: {'📈 UP' if nb['prediction']==1 else '📉 DOWN'}")
-
-        # TTM-R2
-        if 'ttm' in all_preds:
-            ttm = all_preds['ttm']
-            logger.info(f"  🤖 TTM-R2:  {'📈 UP' if ttm['prediction']==1 else '📉 DOWN'} ({ttm['probability']:.1%})")
-
-        prediction = 0
-        if 'ensemble' in all_preds and all_preds['ensemble']:
-            ens = all_preds['ensemble']
-            prediction = ens['prediction']
-            logger.info(f"  🤖 集成结果: {'📈 UP' if prediction==1 else '📉 DOWN'}")
-        
-        # 显示市场价格
-        if self.current_market:
-            up_price = self.current_market['outcome_prices'][0]
-            down_price = self.current_market['outcome_prices'][1]
-            if prediction == 1:
-                logger.info(f"  💰 买入Up价格: ${up_price:.3f} {'✅ 可下单' if up_price <= self.max_price else '❌ 超过限价'}")
-            else:
-                logger.info(f"  💰 买入Down价格: ${down_price:.3f} {'✅ 可下单' if down_price <= self.max_price else '❌ 超过限价'}")
-        
-        # 计算距下一整点时间
         now = datetime.now()
         next_hour = now.replace(minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0) + timedelta(hours=1)
-        wait_minutes = int((next_hour - now).total_seconds() / 60)
+        remaining_minutes = int((next_hour - now).total_seconds() / 60)
-        logger.info(f"  ⏰ 距离下一整点: {wait_minutes}分钟")
+        
-        logger.info("")
+        # 超时时间设为剩余分钟数 - 10，最少为 1 分钟
-    
+        timeout_minutes = max(1, remaining_minutes - 10)
-
+        
-        # === 新增: 保存初始预测和状态 ===
+        logger.info(f"   距离下一整点还有 {remaining_minutes} 分钟，设置超时为 {timeout_minutes} 分钟")
-        try:
+        
-            # 确定最终预测 (用于日志)
+        # 直接调用 run_at_hour_start，延迟为0，立即执行交易逻辑
-            final_pred = 0
+        self.run_at_hour_start(delay_seconds=0, timeout_minutes=timeout_minutes)
-            if 'ensemble' in all_preds and all_preds['ensemble']:
-                final_pred = all_preds['ensemble']['prediction']
-            elif 'dlinear' in all_preds:
-                final_pred = all_preds['dlinear']['prediction']
-            
-            et_tz = ZoneInfo('America/New_York')
-            current_time_utc = pd.Timestamp(current_time)
-            current_time_et = current_time_utc.tz_localize('UTC').tz_convert(et_tz)
-            
-            # 1. 保存预测到 hourly_model_predictions (V2)
-            prediction_data = {
-                "timestamp": current_time_utc.isoformat(),
-                "timestamp_et": current_time_et.isoformat(),
-                "date": current_time_et.strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),
-                "hour": current_time_et.hour,
-                "open_price": float(df['open'].iloc[-1]),
-                "close_price": None,
-                "actual_result": None,
-                
-                # DLinear
-                "dlinear_prediction": all_preds.get('dlinear', {}).get('prediction'),
-                "dlinear_prob": all_preds.get('dlinear', {}).get('probability'),
-                "dlinear_correct": None,
-                
-                # N-BEATS
-                "nbeats_prediction": all_preds.get('nbeats', {}).get('prediction'),
-                "nbeats_prob": all_preds.get('nbeats', {}).get('probability'),
-                "nbeats_correct": None,
-                
-                # TTM-R2
-                "ttm_prediction": all_preds.get('ttm', {}).get('prediction'),
-                "ttm_prob": all_preds.get('ttm', {}).get('probability'),
-                "ttm_correct": None,
-                
-                # Ensemble
-                "ensemble_prediction": all_preds.get('ensemble', {}).get('prediction'),
-                "ensemble_votes": all_preds.get('ensemble', {}).get('votes'),
-                "ensemble_correct": None,
-            }
-            
-            PredictionModel.save_hourly_prediction(prediction_data)
-            logger.info(f"💾 [Init] 初始预测已保存到数据库")
-
-            # 2. 记录当前监控状态到 trades (作为 'in_progress')
-            status = 'in_progress'
-            market_title = self.current_market['title'] if self.current_market else "Waiting for Market..."
-            market_slug = self.current_market['slug'] if self.current_market else None
-            
-            log_data = {
-                'timestamp': datetime.now().isoformat(),
-                'market_title': market_title,
-                'market_slug': market_slug,
-                'model_name': 'Ensemble',
-                'prediction': 'UP' if final_pred == 1 else 'DOWN',
-                'probability': 0.0,
-                'action': 'MONITOR',
-                'price': 0,
-                'amount': 0,
-                'size': 0,
-                'status': status,
-                'error_message': 'System Started - Monitoring',
-                'raw_data': {}
-            }
-            self.db.log_trade(log_data)
-            logger.info(f"💾 [Init] 初始监控状态已记录")
-
-        except Exception as e:
-            logger.error(f"保存初始状态失败: {e}")
-            import traceback
-            traceback.print_exc()
             
     def wait_for_next_hour(self) -> datetime:
         """等待到下一个整点"""

trading_log.json

@@ -18,5 +18,50 @@
     "probability": 0.0,
     "market": "Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9AM ET",
     "market_slug": "bitcoin-up-or-down-february-11-9am-et"
+  },
+  {
+    "timestamp": "2026-02-11T23:18:40.579373",
+    "success": false,
+    "error": "该市场已存在成功交易记录",
+    "prediction": "UP",
+    "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
+    "market": "Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10AM ET",
+    "market_slug": "bitcoin-up-or-down-february-11-10am-et"
+  },
+  {
+    "timestamp": "2026-02-11T23:18:59.059130",
+    "success": false,
+    "error": "该市场已存在成功交易记录",
+    "prediction": "UP",
+    "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
+    "market": "Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10AM ET",
+    "market_slug": "bitcoin-up-or-down-february-11-10am-et"
+  },
+  {
+    "timestamp": "2026-02-11T23:19:50.797784",
+    "success": false,
+    "error": "该市场已存在成功交易记录",
+    "prediction": "UP",
+    "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
+    "market": "Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10AM ET",
+    "market_slug": "bitcoin-up-or-down-february-11-10am-et"
+  },
+  {
+    "timestamp": "2026-02-11T23:31:03.776709",
+    "success": false,
+    "error": "该市场已存在成功交易记录",
+    "prediction": "UP",
+    "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
+    "market": "Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10AM ET",
+    "market_slug": "bitcoin-up-or-down-february-11-10am-et"
+  },
+  {
+    "timestamp": "2026-02-11T23:35:39.565123",
+    "success": false,
+    "error": "该市场已存在成功交易记录",
+    "prediction": "UP",
+    "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
+    "market": "Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10AM ET",
+    "market_slug": "bitcoin-up-or-down-february-11-10am-et"
   }
 ]