fix: update initial trade logic
- Enable immediate trading attempt on startup - Dynamic timeout calculation (remaining minutes - 10) for initial trade - Added duplicate check for initial prediction saving to prevent DB errors
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@@ -719,146 +719,22 @@ class PolymarketBTCTrader:
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def _show_initial_prediction(self):
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"""
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启动时显示当前预测（不下单）
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启动时显示当前预测并尝试执行交易 (不记录Monitor状态)
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"""
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logger.info("\n📊 当前预测状态:")
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logger.info("\n📊 启动时初始预测检查:")
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end_date = (datetime.now() + timedelta(days=1)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
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start_date = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=30)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
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df = self.fetcher.fetch_ohlcv(
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symbol='BTC',
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timeframe='1h',
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start_date=start_date,
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end_date=end_date,
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use_cache=False
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)
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# 显示K线信息
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prev_time = df['timestamp'].iloc[-2]
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prev_close = df['close'].iloc[-2]
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current_time = df['timestamp'].iloc[-1]
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current_close = df['close'].iloc[-1]
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logger.info(f" 上一K线: {prev_time} 收盘价: ${prev_close:,.2f}")
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logger.info(f" 当前K线: {current_time} 收盘价: ${current_close:,.2f}")
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# 进行多模型预测
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df_for_prediction = df.iloc[:-1]
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all_preds = self.inference_manager.predict_all(df_for_prediction)
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# DLinear
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if 'dlinear' in all_preds:
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dl = all_preds['dlinear']
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logger.info(f" 🤖 DLinear: {'📈 UP' if dl['prediction']==1 else '📉 DOWN'} ({dl['probability']:.1%})")
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# N-BEATS
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if 'nbeats' in all_preds:
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nb = all_preds['nbeats']
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logger.info(f" 🤖 N-BEATS: {'📈 UP' if nb['prediction']==1 else '📉 DOWN'}")
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# TTM-R2
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if 'ttm' in all_preds:
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ttm = all_preds['ttm']
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logger.info(f" 🤖 TTM-R2: {'📈 UP' if ttm['prediction']==1 else '📉 DOWN'} ({ttm['probability']:.1%})")
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prediction = 0
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if 'ensemble' in all_preds and all_preds['ensemble']:
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ens = all_preds['ensemble']
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prediction = ens['prediction']
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logger.info(f" 🤖 集成结果: {'📈 UP' if prediction==1 else '📉 DOWN'}")
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# 显示市场价格
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if self.current_market:
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up_price = self.current_market['outcome_prices'][0]
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down_price = self.current_market['outcome_prices'][1]
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if prediction == 1:
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logger.info(f" 💰 买入Up价格: ${up_price:.3f} {'✅ 可下单' if up_price <= self.max_price else '❌ 超过限价'}")
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else:
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logger.info(f" 💰 买入Down价格: ${down_price:.3f} {'✅ 可下单' if down_price <= self.max_price else '❌ 超过限价'}")
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# 计算距下一整点时间
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# 计算剩余分钟数
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now = datetime.now()
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next_hour = now.replace(minute=0, second=0, microsecond=0) + timedelta(hours=1)
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wait_minutes = int((next_hour - now).total_seconds() / 60)
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logger.info(f" ⏰ 距离下一整点: {wait_minutes}分钟")
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logger.info("")
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# === 新增: 保存初始预测和状态 ===
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try:
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# 确定最终预测 (用于日志)
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final_pred = 0
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if 'ensemble' in all_preds and all_preds['ensemble']:
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final_pred = all_preds['ensemble']['prediction']
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elif 'dlinear' in all_preds:
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final_pred = all_preds['dlinear']['prediction']
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et_tz = ZoneInfo('America/New_York')
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current_time_utc = pd.Timestamp(current_time)
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current_time_et = current_time_utc.tz_localize('UTC').tz_convert(et_tz)
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# 1. 保存预测到 hourly_model_predictions (V2)
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prediction_data = {
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"timestamp": current_time_utc.isoformat(),
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"timestamp_et": current_time_et.isoformat(),
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"date": current_time_et.strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),
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"hour": current_time_et.hour,
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"open_price": float(df['open'].iloc[-1]),
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"close_price": None,
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"actual_result": None,
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# DLinear
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"dlinear_prediction": all_preds.get('dlinear', {}).get('prediction'),
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"dlinear_prob": all_preds.get('dlinear', {}).get('probability'),
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"dlinear_correct": None,
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# N-BEATS
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"nbeats_prediction": all_preds.get('nbeats', {}).get('prediction'),
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"nbeats_prob": all_preds.get('nbeats', {}).get('probability'),
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"nbeats_correct": None,
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# TTM-R2
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"ttm_prediction": all_preds.get('ttm', {}).get('prediction'),
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"ttm_prob": all_preds.get('ttm', {}).get('probability'),
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"ttm_correct": None,
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# Ensemble
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"ensemble_prediction": all_preds.get('ensemble', {}).get('prediction'),
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"ensemble_votes": all_preds.get('ensemble', {}).get('votes'),
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"ensemble_correct": None,
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}
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PredictionModel.save_hourly_prediction(prediction_data)
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logger.info(f"💾 [Init] 初始预测已保存到数据库")
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# 2. 记录当前监控状态到 trades (作为 'in_progress')
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status = 'in_progress'
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market_title = self.current_market['title'] if self.current_market else "Waiting for Market..."
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market_slug = self.current_market['slug'] if self.current_market else None
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log_data = {
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'timestamp': datetime.now().isoformat(),
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'market_title': market_title,
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'market_slug': market_slug,
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'model_name': 'Ensemble',
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'prediction': 'UP' if final_pred == 1 else 'DOWN',
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'probability': 0.0,
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'action': 'MONITOR',
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'price': 0,
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'amount': 0,
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'size': 0,
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'status': status,
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'error_message': 'System Started - Monitoring',
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'raw_data': {}
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}
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self.db.log_trade(log_data)
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logger.info(f"💾 [Init] 初始监控状态已记录")
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except Exception as e:
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logger.error(f"保存初始状态失败: {e}")
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import traceback
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traceback.print_exc()
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remaining_minutes = int((next_hour - now).total_seconds() / 60)
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# 超时时间设为剩余分钟数 - 10，最少为 1 分钟
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timeout_minutes = max(1, remaining_minutes - 10)
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logger.info(f" 距离下一整点还有 {remaining_minutes} 分钟，设置超时为 {timeout_minutes} 分钟")
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# 直接调用 run_at_hour_start，延迟为0，立即执行交易逻辑
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self.run_at_hour_start(delay_seconds=0, timeout_minutes=timeout_minutes)
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def wait_for_next_hour(self) -> datetime:
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"""等待到下一个整点"""
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